The difference that Zaheer makes

Even before this article came I was determined to write an article on Zaheer Khan.. He has been the spearhead alright.. But how crucial has he been?
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That India would perform poorly in SA was not a prediction that would win you an orange juice (I am a teetotaler :P ). And remove Zaheer, India would succumb barring miracles was written all over their batting kits. In fact I would go one step further and say Zaheer seems to be like what Sachin was to the ODI team some time in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Just the sheer presence of Sachin in the line-up would boost the team's morale so much that India suddenly had more chances of winning. That is to say, beyond Sachin's performances, his mere presence in the team contributes to a win. A statistical analysis on this, I leave it to the readers. Let me concentrate on Zaheer in this post.
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What better way than a statistical analysis to prove a point? A bowler seems to be only as good as his previous match and India for some strange reason forget everybody but Sachin. It is only 'His' (it is fair enough to make him divine right?) record that we tend to remember. Hence, I resort to stats.. Here, I try to analyze how Indian bowlers have performed in terms of wins and in terms of wickets in the matches that Zaheer has played and the ones he had missed.. especially from 2007 to 2010. Zaheer did not miss any match in 2009 and hence the comparison with and without him will be meaningless for 2009.
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Why from 2007? My gut feeling is that it is from 2007 that he became pivotal. You are welcome to extend the analysis and let me know.
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Table 1 - Winning percentages with and without Zaheer (2007-10)

	Matches played	Won	Draw
India with Zaheer	32	16	11
India without Zaheer	17	6	5

which means India have avoided defeat 27 out of 32 matches (84 % of the time) and 50% of the time they ended up winning when they had Zaheer. But if he misses out, the result becomes a mediocre 64% and 35% respectively. Even if you associate an equal 1/3 probability for a win, loss and draw, it means without Zaheer, India does just what you expect, Win 33%, Draw 33% and Lose 33%.
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The remarkable aspect is, there is not much change even if you break the table to each year as the tables at the end of the blog show. If anything, he has been spectacular in 2010 in which he was just part of one loss out of 8 matches (and India won 5)!
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With data should come the analysis. Otherwise there is no point.. Why is Zaheer important? It is not a big discovery that you need 20 wickets to win a test match. Matches like Chennai (2008) are one-offs (I love Sachin's 100 in that :) as much as I love Sehwag's 80). And more than winning, wickets help you at least a chance to draw rather than what happened a few days before when SA plundered 225 runs in one session. If you don't take wickets the opposition just shuts you out of the match and you are only left with a mountain to chase and hence is my next table. It is another simple table in which I have analyzed the opposition wickets taken by the Indian bowlers with and without Zaheer.
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Table 2 -Number of times opponents have been all out (innings with minimum 30 overs) (2007-10)

	Innings played	Opp team all out	6-9 wickets
India with Zaheer	56	43	10
India without Zaheer	29	11	4

which means when Zaheer was present 43 out of 56 times, that is 76% of the time, the opposition was curtailed and if you also include 6-9 wickets then a whooping 53 out of 56 times 95% of the time the opposition was not allowed to get carried away. Contrast this with the scenario when India did not have Zaheer, the percentages drop to a pathetic 37% and an average 51% respectively.
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And there, my friends, ends my argument.. Did Zaheer have the 'vision' to sit out for unfriendly pitches and was able to foresee the end result? You can become an econometrician if you can prove this... .
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Who said cricket is an individual game? It is very much a team game in which the team performances 'sometimes' is more than the individual performance. (Zaheer's average in these 4 years is 25, 36, 33 and 22 not much away from his career average of 32). There is more than his bowling that Zaheer brings to this Indian team. He just lifts the performance of everybody else!


Appendix - Breaking down Table 1

2008-10

	Matches played	Won	Draw
India with Zaheer	23	12	8
India without Zaheer	11	4	3

2009 and 2010 (Zaheer did not miss a single match in 2009)

	Matches played	Won	Draw
India with Zaheer	14	8	5
India without Zaheer	5	2	1

2010

	Matches played	Won	Draw
India with Zaheer	8	5	2
India without Zaheer	5	2	1

The longest & hardest walk in my 'life'

In my 'life'?? Have I lived that long?? It has been a long enough journey and in various walks of my life I have had several walks :P .. I have walked all the way from school to home, a distance of no less than 1050 meters! Then, in my engineering I bettered my childhood record by walking almost from St. Thomas Mount to my home (Nanganallur) .. maybe around 2-3 kms... Walking was never my intention and my pursued activity. If an opportunity comes, I just take it. When my grand mother (paatti) or father (thatha) calls I go with them. My paatti is talkative and my thatha is rewarding. Paatti talks about her past, the world's past and invariably most of them will be repeats but with interesting additions. Thatha buys me something at the end of the walk, sometimes as small as a tea and vada, sometimes at a bakery or even a restaurant. Food straight after an exercise, that was his way of life! (He is a retired inspector of police).
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Though I prefer (and love) cycling to walking anytime, it was in my fag end at IIT that I took up walking as a recreation. We formed a team and enthusiastically explored the interiors of IIT. We would have easily spent an hour walking from one end of IIT to the other in the early hours. Many of us had not woken up so early even for an exam!
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But, beyond all these was the some walking I did a few days before.. I have the habit of exploring new places on my own when I visit them and get doubly excited if I have company. If I go to a new city I explore the public transportation (Rochester is horrible on this and Chennai is awesome!) and try to avoid autos and taxis. There is a definite chance that you take a longer route via bus, explore more places, go more slowly giving yourself time to see around, waste less fuel by sharing a common ride and beyond all I am a Grad student :P with monetary considerations.
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If I go to a new place (NY, DC, Austin), to go from point A to B, I first explore maps.google, find the distance and check for public transportation. If the time and strain are reasonable I go for it. I also try to have a map (DC and NY maps are so good. You can literally go around DC just with the help of a city map) and the map guides me around and it also helps me to check if I am in the right direction and help me if I am lost. Just the basics, nothing extraordinary..
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Murphy's law. I was in St. Louis recently for a conference. I had strategically booked a hotel located midway between the airport and the conference place. But my strategy was wrong. Neither the airport was nearby nor the conference center was nearby :P Equidistance does not mean comfortable.
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St. Louis was south of Rochester and my understanding was if you move towards the equator from North it will get warmer. Mistake! It is true only if you move 'enough'. :P St. Louis was horribly cold and the weekend I landed there was an imminent snow storm predicted. Somehow part of Murphy parted from me and I managed to take a pair of thermal wear along with me. The stupid conferences played their part - they always start at 8 with breakfast at 7. So if you need free breakfast you better get there by 7. The organizers are absolutely heartless having no emotions for sleep deprived and at the same time oversleeping students..
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Anyway, I left by a taxi and evening on my way back wanted to try the bus system. The bus stop at the conference was just a 7 minute walk and I thought I will at least pack my dinner at the Univ (conference center) subway. Got hold of a map from the univ website and with directions from a few students reached subway. It was already windy (signs of the impending snow storm). All I had was my formal suit on top of a thermal wear. I fortunately had taken one more set of trousers, a cotton one that looked more like a Jean.. I had taken that along just in case I want to go around the city :P. So thought, something is better than nothing and wore that on top of it feeling less cold (not more warm).
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The wind chill was so ridiculous that I could not even speak on phone with exposed hands. Maybe I should have gone by a taxi. But then, there was my ego. Having decided to go by bus, how can I change my mind? So waited for the bus. It was bang on time (something I always appreciate in the US). According to google maps the ride was for 24 mins and then another 5 min walk from that stop. The bus had the route map and I was easily able to follow the route and get down at the correct stop.
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Then the fun started. After 2-3 minutes of walking I knew this was anything but my hotel's place. Maybe I am walking in the opposite direction? Called up my friend and checked up with him. A gust of wind and my hands were bare.. I was in the correct direction and it was a 5 min walk. So, kept walking.. 10 mins and no signs of the hotel. Another call to my friend. He said you will see a cemetery.. Yes I did..., and if you cross the cemetery, in the middle of the lake there is your hotel! Lake?? cemetery??!! I did not remember anything near my hotel. Maybe, because it was dark (Sun rises only at 7 and sets as early as 4 30 PM in winter). So kept walking crossed the cemetery. Another started, yes another cemetery that is.. Four cemeteries went past!! Wow, I proved my bravery.. But with the freezing temperature and wind chill how about my fitness??..
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Kept walking, from what was supposed to be a 5 min walk, it soon crossed 45 mins easily. The worst was except for a few cars passing by, the roads were also empty. So, it was probably the stupidest decision to walk and a great lesson was learnt. I wanted to call a taxi but I did not know where exactly to call him as I was just blindly walking on the same road and had no clue where I was. So, determined to continue, kept walking. Saw a few houses, should I step in? Will it be safe? Unsure, continued my walk further. A used car shop and it was open! Gathered my guts for one last time and went in. A lady and 2 guys. Asked them about the hotel, they said it is maybe another 10 mins just after the next signal.. The few minutes indoors gave me some much needed comfort.. Just another 10 minutes, let's do it.. Continued..
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Crossed the signal, little did I know that the red sign was also for me, no sign of the hotel even after the sign.. another 15 mins.. saw Walgreens!! My eyes lit up. Not that I have reached my hotel, but now I have a place to call the taxi to. Went inside and asked the cashier for the hotel. She suggested to get across the street and go by the bus. Bus!! No way, I thought, it is highly likely that I will cross my destination and walk backwards now, especially after everything today. But then, my ego slowly started creeping (imagine Ring).. Slammed it in with whatever energy I was left with and called up a taxi. 10 mins passed and my phone rang, the caller said the taxi was waiting outside Walgreens.. I walk out, a few more minutes of searching, and could see nothing.. Called up Taxi again.. Apparently he had either gone to some other Walgreens or Walmart.. Finally it came and the hotel was a good 2 (TWO whole miles) from Walgreens! If I had continued walking, it would have been another hour at the very least!!. The only good thing about the weather was it kept my footlong from subway fresh enough for dinner!
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Thankfully I am alive and I am able to pen this.. Google maps duly got an earful that night.. The funniest aspect was just out of curiosity checked up the same route in google maps the next day and alas it asked me to take another connecting bus from that stop :O
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And there folks ends my strangest, longest and hardest walk!! Promised myself to never do this again.. But aren't promises meant to be broken? ;)