Even before this article came I was determined to write an article on Zaheer Khan.. He has been the spearhead alright.. But how crucial has he been?
.
That India would perform poorly in SA was not a prediction that would win you an orange juice (I am a teetotaler :P ). And remove Zaheer, India would succumb barring miracles was written all over their batting kits. In fact I would go one step further and say Zaheer seems to be like what Sachin was to the ODI team some time in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Just the sheer presence of Sachin in the line-up would boost the team's morale so much that India suddenly had more chances of winning. That is to say, beyond Sachin's performances, his mere presence in the team contributes to a win. A statistical analysis on this, I leave it to the readers. Let me concentrate on Zaheer in this post.
.
What better way than a statistical analysis to prove a point? A bowler seems to be only as good as his previous match and India for some strange reason forget everybody but Sachin. It is only 'His' (it is fair enough to make him divine right?) record that we tend to remember. Hence, I resort to stats.. Here, I try to analyze how Indian bowlers have performed in terms of wins and in terms of wickets in the matches that Zaheer has played and the ones he had missed.. especially from 2007 to 2010. Zaheer did not miss any match in 2009 and hence the comparison with and without him will be meaningless for 2009.
.
Why from 2007? My gut feeling is that it is from 2007 that he became pivotal. You are welcome to extend the analysis and let me know.
.
Table 1 - Winning percentages with and without Zaheer (2007-10)
which means India have avoided defeat 27 out of 32 matches (84 % of the time) and 50% of the time they ended up winning when they had Zaheer. But if he misses out, the result becomes a mediocre 64% and 35% respectively. Even if you associate an equal 1/3 probability for a win, loss and draw, it means without Zaheer, India does just what you expect, Win 33%, Draw 33% and Lose 33%.
.
The remarkable aspect is, there is not much change even if you break the table to each year as the tables at the end of the blog show. If anything, he has been spectacular in 2010 in which he was just part of one loss out of 8 matches (and India won 5)!
.
With data should come the analysis. Otherwise there is no point.. Why is Zaheer important? It is not a big discovery that you need 20 wickets to win a test match. Matches like Chennai (2008) are one-offs (I love Sachin's 100 in that :) as much as I love Sehwag's 80). And more than winning, wickets help you at least a chance to draw rather than what happened a few days before when SA plundered 225 runs in one session. If you don't take wickets the opposition just shuts you out of the match and you are only left with a mountain to chase and hence is my next table. It is another simple table in which I have analyzed the opposition wickets taken by the Indian bowlers with and without Zaheer.
.
Table 2 -Number of times opponents have been all out (innings with minimum 30 overs) (2007-10)
which means when Zaheer was present 43 out of 56 times, that is 76% of the time, the opposition was curtailed and if you also include 6-9 wickets then a whooping 53 out of 56 times 95% of the time the opposition was not allowed to get carried away. Contrast this with the scenario when India did not have Zaheer, the percentages drop to a pathetic 37% and an average 51% respectively.
.
And there, my friends, ends my argument.. Did Zaheer have the 'vision' to sit out for unfriendly pitches and was able to foresee the end result? You can become an econometrician if you can prove this... .
.
Who said cricket is an individual game? It is very much a team game in which the team performances 'sometimes' is more than the individual performance. (Zaheer's average in these 4 years is 25, 36, 33 and 22 not much away from his career average of 32). There is more than his bowling that Zaheer brings to this Indian team. He just lifts the performance of everybody else!
Appendix - Breaking down Table 1
.
That India would perform poorly in SA was not a prediction that would win you an orange juice (I am a teetotaler :P ). And remove Zaheer, India would succumb barring miracles was written all over their batting kits. In fact I would go one step further and say Zaheer seems to be like what Sachin was to the ODI team some time in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Just the sheer presence of Sachin in the line-up would boost the team's morale so much that India suddenly had more chances of winning. That is to say, beyond Sachin's performances, his mere presence in the team contributes to a win. A statistical analysis on this, I leave it to the readers. Let me concentrate on Zaheer in this post.
.
What better way than a statistical analysis to prove a point? A bowler seems to be only as good as his previous match and India for some strange reason forget everybody but Sachin. It is only 'His' (it is fair enough to make him divine right?) record that we tend to remember. Hence, I resort to stats.. Here, I try to analyze how Indian bowlers have performed in terms of wins and in terms of wickets in the matches that Zaheer has played and the ones he had missed.. especially from 2007 to 2010. Zaheer did not miss any match in 2009 and hence the comparison with and without him will be meaningless for 2009.
.
Why from 2007? My gut feeling is that it is from 2007 that he became pivotal. You are welcome to extend the analysis and let me know.
.
Table 1 - Winning percentages with and without Zaheer (2007-10)
Matches played
|
Won
|
Draw
| |
India with Zaheer
|
32
|
16
|
11
|
India without Zaheer
|
17
|
6
|
5
|
which means India have avoided defeat 27 out of 32 matches (84 % of the time) and 50% of the time they ended up winning when they had Zaheer. But if he misses out, the result becomes a mediocre 64% and 35% respectively. Even if you associate an equal 1/3 probability for a win, loss and draw, it means without Zaheer, India does just what you expect, Win 33%, Draw 33% and Lose 33%.
.
The remarkable aspect is, there is not much change even if you break the table to each year as the tables at the end of the blog show. If anything, he has been spectacular in 2010 in which he was just part of one loss out of 8 matches (and India won 5)!
.
With data should come the analysis. Otherwise there is no point.. Why is Zaheer important? It is not a big discovery that you need 20 wickets to win a test match. Matches like Chennai (2008) are one-offs (I love Sachin's 100 in that :) as much as I love Sehwag's 80). And more than winning, wickets help you at least a chance to draw rather than what happened a few days before when SA plundered 225 runs in one session. If you don't take wickets the opposition just shuts you out of the match and you are only left with a mountain to chase and hence is my next table. It is another simple table in which I have analyzed the opposition wickets taken by the Indian bowlers with and without Zaheer.
.
Table 2 -Number of times opponents have been all out (innings with minimum 30 overs) (2007-10)
Innings played
|
Opp team all out
|
6-9 wickets
| |
India with Zaheer
|
56
|
43
|
10
|
India without Zaheer
|
29
|
11
|
4
|
which means when Zaheer was present 43 out of 56 times, that is 76% of the time, the opposition was curtailed and if you also include 6-9 wickets then a whooping 53 out of 56 times 95% of the time the opposition was not allowed to get carried away. Contrast this with the scenario when India did not have Zaheer, the percentages drop to a pathetic 37% and an average 51% respectively.
.
And there, my friends, ends my argument.. Did Zaheer have the 'vision' to sit out for unfriendly pitches and was able to foresee the end result? You can become an econometrician if you can prove this... .
.
Who said cricket is an individual game? It is very much a team game in which the team performances 'sometimes' is more than the individual performance. (Zaheer's average in these 4 years is 25, 36, 33 and 22 not much away from his career average of 32). There is more than his bowling that Zaheer brings to this Indian team. He just lifts the performance of everybody else!
Appendix - Breaking down Table 1
2008-10
Matches played
|
Won
|
Draw
| |
India with Zaheer
|
23
|
12
|
8
|
India without Zaheer
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
2009 and 2010 (Zaheer did not miss a single match in 2009)
Matches played
|
Won
|
Draw
| |
India with Zaheer
|
14
|
8
|
5
|
India without Zaheer
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
2010
Matches played
|
Won
|
Draw
| |
India with Zaheer
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
India without Zaheer
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
I like ur analysis totally rational and meaningful stats to support ur view.
ReplyDeleteI read ur longest walk too and don't know how u managed to walk in that cold.
- Ravi
Thanks Mama! ..
ReplyDeleteThe first thing that struck me w/ the recent (42nd) over, is this post!
ReplyDeleteNow I'm actually going to read it :P